SUBSIDY: A PANORAMIC VIEW

I am not a politician and I am not an economist. I don’t hold the strongest opinions on either.

I am a Nigerian and this imposed fact means I can speak my half-baked mind on the issue.

I do not support the subsidy removal and as it stands I don’t think I ever will. Now listening to both sides of the debate, it appears the subsidy would have to be removed eventually. The government claims the money is to be used on infrastructure. A laughable idea since it sounds like the provision of infrastructure is a favour to Nigerians. The argument against is hinged on the timing and there is the theory that there isn’t any subsidy in the first place.

Like I have said I am not an expert in this field so I say as a layman with only the elementary economics taught in one of the public schools that previous government have allowed go to ruin, that the thought is callous. Since the issue was raised in public discourse, my faculty has been inundated with various arguments with well annotated calculations that fly over my head. The only one I consider of any merit is basic arithmetic that starts from the minimum wage.

Basically for simplicity, let’s use 18,000 as minimum wage. Since the increase, the average fare from places like Nyanya to Gwarimpa (using Abuja as setting)has gone up to about 250. Now to and fro would be 500. So daily transportation expenses is N500/day. If we assume the worker doesn’t go to work Saturdays and Sundays in a 30-day month of three weekends, that would mean 24 days of 500/day fare which would amount to N12,000. So for all other expenses he has N6,000 to be used in a world where food prices have doubled.

Just peachy, isn’t it?

The example is for a single person, but there are families that actually have less than 18,000 as sole income. Spokespersons for the government say the benefits would be seen in about three years. And I ask, how long can a family subsist on that income while it awaits this bright future?

Truth is, such a family won’t survive three months. It is impossible. But knowing Nigeria, people who haven’t lived like this ever are telling us to wait, give government time, joy cometh in a few years. Bollocks, I say.

Of course, few experts would take this type of analysis seriously since there isn’t any fancy economic jargon involved. I know I have ignored large swathes of economic postulation to get this across but I doubt the majority of Nigerians understand anything higher than this pedestrian view.

The government says it will get better, market forces (that faceless entity) based on demand and supply, while the money saved, that mythic 1.3trillion, would provide roads, hospitals, health centres, and yes the elusive power! All that may be good but how long can the vast majority of Nigerians wait for market forces?

It really is that simple to my mind.

Any expert reading this especially the Iweala’s, Sanusi’s with their foreign tutored brains would label this silly. But there isn’t another way to see it. Aside the fancy education that prevents these people from understanding the simple things of the world, there is also the money and power.  Chances are none of these people or their kids have to purchase fuel most of the time- official cars ferry officials fuelled with official fuel- the life. Such life comes with a lack of empathy as handicap. Even if they have to pay, the obscene amount of money as salary is a mighty soft cushion. If they had to live on 20,000 a month, I am sure they would find Tropical Editions of Harvard textbooks to imbibe.

Again, if by the most definition of democracy, it is for the people and by the people; now same people have said they don’t want the policy, how can it stand and yet claim to be democracy. I must be missing something here.

For us young people, Nigeria has for the most part being a la Awolowo a geographical entity. There are hardly any of us who can claim to be patriotic and show proof. We have not fought wars, we didn’t fight for Independence, the transition to democracy was achieved through prayers and an anecdotal apple. A lot of us can’t recite the full anthem and pledge completely and accurately (fortunately, our politicians can’t either).

But it takes only one episode to transform a docile people into a horde of irate protesters. We have watched the people of Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, a lot of them young with only books and oral tradition telling them when their leaders came into power tackle their governments, marching angrily on the streets defiant. They may have been speaking to their leaders but in their agitation was a message to us, we the meek people of Nigeria- of which I am a card carrying member- appear to have found an opportunity to stand for something.

Come tomorrow, I drop that card and pick up a placard in its stead.

Oris Aigbokhaevbolo

Asokoro, Abuja.

FUEL SUBSIDY: THE MORNING AFTER

L-R (Sanusi Lamido, Christine Lagarde, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala)

In logic, an “argumentum ad populum” (latin phrase for “appeal to the people”) is a fallacious argument that concludes a proposition to be true because many or most believe it. It alleges: “If many believe so, then it is so”.  Therefore it is more fallacious to think that a few people comprising the President and his economic team headed by the coordinating minister of the economy, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the Governor of the Central Bank, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi and the minister for petroleum, Dieziani Alison Madueke, would claim that removing the subsidy on petrol would end all of Nigeria’s problems.  As pristine as their argument seems, it is illogical to believe that subsidy removal would suddenly provide golden streets, sky scrapers, hospitals, and state of the art universities.

Government’s arguments have been closed ended and based on principles of free market economies that are rather grandiose and superfluous. So many assumptions have been made and the begging question: “what if no investor comes to build refineries” is left unanswered. The finance minister in a bid to lend credence to the policy suddenly turned health minister overnight and became an expert on maternal and child mortality. She is so sure that the “savings” derived from fuel subsidy will save our dying children. Her counterpart, Madueke Alison spoke ever so brilliantly about how the transport industry she doesn’t head will be transformed with speed trains traversing Kano into Lagos. Interestingly, Madueke was the transport minister from July 2007 to December of 2008 and she could not provide choo- choo trains then and now speaks of speed trains.  Everything about the benefit of subsidy removal is futuristic. Nothing concrete has been achieved by this administration to judge them or trust them by.

 In the last week, it was evident that Nigerian leaders are completely out of touch with the people they claim to lead. When I heard a government spokes person suggest that it is the bourgeois of the society and not the proletariat who would suffer from the effect of the removal of subsidy because they (the middle class) have more than one car. It depicted how out of touch she was with the common man’s plight.  “How does a minimum wage earner survive”, a close friend of mine keeps asking me. The finance minister has no answer either but she was quick to quip that she feels their pain.  She claims she knows that the price of rice has jumped up over night. She even knows that some people travelled to their villages for the Christmas and have since not returned because the fares sky rocketed. She sympathizes well but cannot empathize because she lacks the capacity.

The good will that ushered President Jonathan’s administration is gone. He is no longer referred to as fresh air. He has surrounded himself with rich kids and forgotten he didn’t have shoes. He seems to be completely sold out on the idea of removal of subsidy. He has not said anything about his government’s inadequacy to fight corruption. He has not been so defiant in ensuring that our borders are less porous in order to prevent subsidized fuel crossing into neighboring countries.  He has not reduced the amount of money spent on the Louis Vuitton rice and beans eaten in Aso rock. No one from his cabinet has demanded a reduction in the extravagant life styles of government staff. The 25% slash in basic salary doesn’t cut it, especially when he (Jonathan) was reported to have flown to South Africa with two aircrafts and a deluge of government contingents after his broadcast. The trust the people had for him has vanished completely. President Obama’s health bill took over a year before he got republicans, his own party members and the rest of America to buy into his policy. The British prime minister flies British Airways. The Ghanaian president lives in his own home. But our dear president announces to the world and all that cared to listen that he had cut his basic salary by 25% without touching the needless allowances hemorrhaging the country.  

 Am quiet convinced that if the government’s self “austerity measure” and “palliatives” had taken effect before the announcement on January 1^st, Nigerians may have been a bit more perceptive. The afterthought manner by which the “palliatives” were announced was a bit insulting.  And to think that every government lackey was proud to announce the purchase of 1,600 diesel engine buses (like it was a lottery ticket) for 150 million people is laughable.

This insensitivity has resulted in mass protests and rallies organized by incensed Nigerians, civil society groups and organized labour. The Occupy Now movement that sailed across the world through Europe, North Africa and the Middle East has anchored in Nigeria. The government knew there would be resistance but they certainly didn’t envisage what happened last week. They thought it would be the regular NLC protests that lose steam after some horse-trading. But with the help of social media sites like facebook and trends like #occupynigeria on twitter which fueled the protests, the FG resolved a re-negotiate would be best. It used to be the NLC fighting for the people but now it is the people that are fighting for the NLC. Nasir el Rufai and Pastor Tunde Bakare have been mere rallying points, the people themselves are angry. All those that supported Jonathan during his campaign have renounced him.

A lot has been written on the subsidy issue so I would not over flog it. All I will try to do today is highlight the positives we can take away from it.

NOW WE KNOW

Before now, there had been quite a lot of speculations on how much really it cost to run the government. The debate over removal of subsidy has brought to light the amount of monies spent in the kitchen of the President. The amount of money allotted for foreign trips, the ridiculous sums used to buy photocopying machines every year. We know that there was even a KPMG audit of the NNPC that the government has refused to touch with a long stick until now. We know there is a cabal the government cannot prosecute, we know how much fuel is sold in Venezuela and we know that we don’t know how much crude oil we export daily. The list goes on. The general populace is aware and wants accountability now. We are no longer content with just admiring the politician and excusing mediocrity with stupid phrases like “chop I chop”. There is a general hatred for corruption and this is good. A time will come where capital punishment will be canvassed for as penalty for corruption. No more plea bargains.

I HAD NO SHOES (YEAH RIGHT!)

I liked this line sadly. I wasn’t fooled but I admit it was a clincher. The disappointment over the Jonathan administration would teach us to focus on issues and not sentiments during elections. When someone promises you 200,000 jobs and 4000Mega bytes of electricity, we will learn to ask him (or her), how he would come by it. The last election was overshadowed by zoning and how a true son of the soil was finally president and that was the reason many including my humble self supported him. No key developmental issue was discussed and if anybody brought it up, they were labeled “cabal” or detractors. The truth is, a government that is quick to hands-off responsibility from its citizenry at the drop of the hat has no business in power. The average politician in power sees the regular Nigerian as an inconvenience he is forced to deal with. The government doesn’t tax her citizens like most developed economies and hence doesn’t think he owes him anything. He rigs himself into power and sustains himself with free oil money. It is that simple. He owes you nothing.  The Nigerian people actually subsidize the government. When you sink your own bore hole, you subsidize government, when you buy a generator, you subsidize your government, when you pay extra private tutors for your child because the public schools are useless then you have subsidized the government. Most leaders in Nigeria do not know the first thing about leadership and must be put through stringent public scrutiny. Not having shoes or being a “facebook” president should be addendums and not the core.  Most Nigerians cannot be blamed anyway because in the last election we were granted the devils alternative. And men indeed have fallen.

UNITY

It is true that adversity brings people together. During the mass protest, Nigerians showed love towards each other. People donated for others to eat, others brought pure water. This is the kind of selfless love the apostles shared after Pentecost. Where you esteem another above yourself and it should be commended. In Abuja, Christians stood guard as Muslims prayed. Boko Haram members would have been sick to their stomachs to see such a sight. That was pure beauty. The plan to pitch Muslims against Christians failed because of adversity. And sadly for them, they found out the hard way that they aren’t the centre of attraction. Prior to the mass protests, it was Boko Haram news. Not that I don’t like us discussing important issues but there is something about fear that cripples. Fear pervades and paralyzes the mind like cancer to the body. It had begun to affect the way we see each other and suspicion and discord was breeding.  The Nigerian youth also finally knows what it means to be patriotic.  He knows that selling his vote for N500 is selling his future.

CONCLUSION

Perhaps the most compelling argument against the retention of subsidy was that posited by the Central Bank Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi. He says it is not economically sound to peg the pump price of fuel at N65 when other factors such as inflation rate and crude oil prices vary. He has a valid point and I was almost swayed. But I can’t get over the fact that if we fix our refineries and build new ones we would not even have a need for subsidy. Government doesn’t seem to want to take up any responsibility at all.

I had written a while ago on my support for subsidy removal because of the fraud in it but after a critical look at things, government will need to thread softly. There has to be guarantees. Trust is earned and they must earn back the peoples trust back. Infrastructure must be put in place to show that the government is  working. People must begin to go to prison for the sins against our nation. And a staggered approach to the removal of subsidy (if it must be removed) while refineries are being built should be adopted.   It is an illusion for us to believe fuel will remain N65 naira forever.

©2012 Otaigbe Itua Ewoigbokhan

Itualive! ™

CHRONICLES OF A MOTOR PARK: MR DABID MARKUS (PART THREE)

TRANSPORT UNION RALLY AT OJOTA MOTOR PARK

Solidarity forever!

Solidarity forever!

Solidarity forever!

We shall always fight for our right!

Soli-Soli-Soli

(Union chairman mounts podium)

Greatest Nigerian pipu

Great!

Greatest Gbo-Gbo

Greatest Gba-Gba

Greatest of the greatest Nigerian pipu

G-r—rr-ee-aa-t!!!

(Dabid Makus and his cronies join the rally)

Dis govament too wicked sef

Dem no just send poor man at all

Kinleji, instead make you dey find customer

You dey dere dey complain up and down

Na only too fone we don collect since dis strike start

But Dabid, make we sidon tuk dis matter,

Dis strike over subsidy wey dem remove don dey affect awa busyness seriously

Nobody dey come moto park again

I just taya my broda

President Lucky wan kill person

Na my friend Okonji, na im I pity pass

Di man go inewi for Chrismas, e no kon get money take come back

Na very big fool o, e travel no carry im wife go. How im no go travel with that kind wife wey im get?

Anoda man don dey service am for im house

Im wife kukuma  neva commot subsidy for her wrapper. (chuckles)

But Dabid, if we tuk truth, dis govament dey try us sha

Shey you hear d kain money wey dem dey use wak for villa

One billion

Ewoh. Na Africa wan chop

See dis one, so you neva hear sef

Dat one no even vex me sef

How one human being go carry sis hundred million as salary my broad, one man, kai (shakes head painfully).

Kinleji, if to sey na me get dat kain money ehn, I go just die. True to God

My wife go no sey, Dabid na great man

Isiewu plus Nkwobi every night

That stupid small gel wey dey whine waste for me go hear am

She dey do iyanga for me, dey swing waste for her papa

She go bow to the great Dabid Makus.

Dabid dat na why you no go ever see dat kain money

Because na so so bad thing you go use am do

If na me wey get sis hundred million, and I dey govament, I go do only good thin

I go destroy dis cabal wey President Lucky dey fear

Because everything thing wey no good for dis country e be like say na cabal cause am

If your wife no fit cook, na cabal

If she no fit perform, na cabal,

Fuel no dey, na cabal,

Road no good, na cabal,

Light no dey, na cabal

If Boko Haram kill, na cabal, I just taya. It is just too bad.

(Police armored trucks arrive rally venue. One Police man takes hold of a Public Address Sytem)

This is Commissioner  Sakusi. L. Sakusi, I will not repeat myself

Leave this place at once or else…

Oya start to fire dem

(Tear gas canisters and bullets are released, protesters run for cover).

(Later that Day in Dabid Makus’ home)

Nkem, Nkem, abeg bring my food abeg.

Why you dey shat for my head, na me send you go protest. (Laughs)

Oya sorry my husband, I go make am up to you later (smiles).

Nkem abeg on television, na nine o clock news.

(Nkem turns on TV.  Cutlery falls from Dabid’s hand as he stares in disbelief )

(Goggled General makes a broadcast on Television)

Fellow Nigerians,

Due to the recent insecurities in the country in the last few months

We have decided that enough is enough

The Supreme Military Council have dissolved all arms of government

We have dissolved all trade unions and all political parties

We have dissolved all state governments

We have dissolved all things

THE END.

©2012 Otaigbe Itua Ewoigbokhan

NB: The characters used in this piece are fictional and semblance to real persons is entirely coincidental.

Itualive! ™

CHRISTMAS IN CALABAR

The Year 2011 has finally come to an end. It was glad to see the end of a year that witnessed a lot  of bloodshed in Nigeria. I hope that 2012, will usher in laughter and joy and peace and happiness.  I love Nigeria and we should understand that without peace, there can never be economic growth. I admonish you all to strive to be better as a unit so we can all be stronger as a whole.

I thank you all for the support you have given  Itualive!  and , I wish you all a very prosperous 2012.  And so in the spirit of the New Year, in this  month of January, I will not post any write-ups relating to   Bombs, Boko-Haram,  bullets,  subsidy removal or (Oh-my-God), the senseless killings that happened today in Eboyi State.

It will be happy posts all the way. And to begin this series of happy posts (wink), I got my friend (rather cajoled him) to write on his experience at the just concluded Calabar festival in Cross River State. When I read it, it made me smile, and I hope you will too...Happy New Year!

If your boyfriend no dey do you well….clap, clap, clap, clap….away!

Such a catchy tune I must admit…more so after this trip.

I got into Cross River State on the 24^th of December from Vandeikya in Benue State. Due to the poor state of roads in the country, the journey into Cross River had promised to be long and tedious. And tedious it turned out to be! The image I had formed of Cross River State prior to my visit was that of lush green vegetations with flowery trees hanging on every side of the road, a plush lifestyle of the people and roads devoid of potholes; but nothing on earth could have prepared me for the disappointment I got only three minutes into Ogoja.

Ogoja, I was told is the major town before Calabar and about 72km away from Ikom. The bad roads there dealt intricately with every spine in my body from Ogoja to Ikom and only got better after we got to the Atimaka Bridge.

I turned to ask the passenger beside me when we got to Ikom whether it was clear sailing from then on to Calabar. I wanted to know if we where anywhere close because I had gotten really cranky. But he just grinned   and pointed at a road sign which read, “Calabar – 214km, Cameroon – 225km”. About the potholes, he was kind enough to add: “it is better from here on”. I almost reeled in excitement. This incipient joy, led me into thinking I could head over into the neighboring country of to get my passport stamped just for kicks. After all, it was invariably the same distance. Actually, the distance from Ogoja to Calabar was farther than from Ikom to Cameroon. Phew!

We made a pit stop and when the driver returned from his rest we journeyed an extra 214km into Calabar. The bad roads did not reduce passing through Obubra; the driver was swaying from one side of the road to another, like a snake through the grass to avoid potholes. I got a slight relief from the waist pains at Iyamogong and Ovonum.

The mind however, is a funny thing and the body does not remember pain. After passing through Ugep and Akamkpa and finally arriving at Calabar, the instant amnesia that hit me was overwhelming.

I have never been to Calabar, and I must say it is a beautiful town!  I got there at dusk and the Christmas lights were already up all around the town. The driver of the bus finally came to a stop at Gbogobiri; a name I thought was strange. Before I got to my final destination, I passed by the slanting flood lights of the  stadium, the gigantic National flagpole of the Millennium Park and the Cultural Centre which was already a beehive of activities. My pain was gone….

The sight of a town with so much vivacity pulsed my veins heavily. The people in this town lived for this time in the year, it was some sort of African Saturnalia. A friend of mine was to pick me up and while I waited, I took some time to mill around the cultural centre. Everything was being sold there and as I got to look around, I discovered it had been an open market since the first of December. Music blared from every angle cutting through distance and space and people switched to beats as they walked shedding each sound like cajoling vendors in a market place.

That night, I slept with promises and dreams of Christmas in this beautiful city.

The next day, I was jolted from my sleep by text messages wishing me a Merry Christmas. I   replied them, sent as much as I could and called as many people my call credit could afford me. I prepared for church. There was a Winners Chapel in Calabar and I asked my friends to take me there regardless of the present “slaps giving” video brandished all over the internet. Winners and The Redeemed Christian Church of God are the only two churches I can comfortably go when I am away from home. So I reclined into my seat while I listened to the preacher spew out those ever encouraging words.

“This coming 2012 would be the most prosperous year you will ever experience!”

“Amen!” the people chorus.

“The Lord would surprise you beyond your expectations before the year runs out!”

“Amen!”, again.

“I say, this Christmas is just a stepping stone. Come next year you will climb that ladder that makes you a leader in Jesus name!”

“Amen!”  Again, and again.

On stepping out of the church, I received two text messages informing me about the bomb blasts at Madalla and Plateau State. A sad countenance came over me and in some sort way, I felt a bit shocked because here I was in a different world, a different planet obviously impervious to the sadness of the country that surrounds it. Everyone was in a festive mood; jumping from one beat to another not aware that a little girl just lost her entire family in that blast.

As it turns out, one can’t beat the system one finds himself, so eventually the merriment continued and the Guinness lounge had the highest turnout of people that night. Each person had space just enough to move within his own perimeter, bodies were close enough to touch willingly or unwillingly, the coloured lights flickered on and off intermittently. With the beats on, especially in these parts of Calabar, the thoughts of National insecurity receded fast like a demon shadow in the presence of light. The D.J put that V.I.P song on repeat, the crowd soared, and their hands synchronized….clap, clap, clap, clap away!

“Africa’s largest street party”, as it is fondly called is a beautiful thing. It draws people from all over the world and the states in Nigeria to this hub-spot for the two highpoints of the carnival which takes place on the 26^th and 27^th December ever year. This festival became popular when Donald Duke was Governor and the culture is being maintained by the Current Governor, Liyel Imoke. If there is one thing the successive governments in Cross River have successfully managed in every administration, it is culture and tourism. I mean, look at such places like Obudu and Tinapa (though underutilized in my personal opinion) are examples of tourist attractions that the state can proudly boast of.

One good thing about the carnival is the sense of belonging which it gives the people of Calabar. It’s like their thought goes thus, “the world comes to watch our own thing”. During the children’s carnival on the 26^th, mothers came out to cheer their children to dance. Though some of the children were tired, from the direct heat of the sun, it is not strange to see a dancer giving an on-looker a hi-five during the procession.

On the 27^th of December, at approximately 11.30am, the adult procession started. I was at Mary Slessor’s. I got to know that the carnival was actually a competition between five bands namely; Passion 4, Masta Blasta, Freedom, Seagull and Bayside. They danced choreographically and seductively to the blasts from the mighty trailer speakers anchored with tight ropes to the trailer’s floor. The crowd cheered, it was ecstatic.

One thing I must commend is the costumes. The colours were bright and exaggerated. From red to blue, pink to purple, yellow to green. Everything shone like a mix of the rainbow with the reflection from the sun. Surely, a lot of hard work had been put into this great moment. I was not disappointed. Other groups which took part in the fanfare were the Immigration and Customs band, the Prisons band, the Police band, the 13^th Brigade Akim Barracks band. Also First bank and Dangote Group of companies had their bands as sponsors of the event.

I have no idea of who won the prize (10 million Naira I think) and maybe that’s not so important. I guess what is important is the fun such an event creates and also the revenue boost each year that such event provide the state.

A very big thank you to my friends Emeka Okoli, Obiora Onyeagba and Tochukwu Okwonna who made my stay there worth its while.

Probably the next time I will be writing about a carnival of this nature, it will be from the samba capital, Rio de Janeiro Brazil. Wouldn’t I just love that?

Humming (clap, clap, clap, clap……….away!)

Dr.  Otuonye Ubasinachi (PharmD)

Writes from Calabar
Itualive! ™